This winter, with the world watching, Russia deployed around 100,000 troops together with tanks and heavy artillery along its border with Ukraine. Many of these are stationed in Donetsk and Luhansk where separatist forces have been fighting since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 – a reminder that Russia has attacked Ukraine before.

Last week, the U.S. formally rejected Moscow's security demands that NATO bar Ukraine from joining the military alliance and pull back forces from Eastern Europe, which increased the prospects of an incursion. The West has threatened that any invasion will be met with damaging sanctions against Russia.

Already, wheat futures are rising in anticipation of interruption to grain flows from the Black Sea region, as Ukraine accounts for 10% of global wheat exports and is the world's fourth-largest corn exporter. Oil and gas price rises are also predicted, with the U.S. looking to secure alternative fuel sources for the E.U., which currently depends on Russia for a third of its gas.

Behind the headlines, traders in these markets should consider how they might be impacted.

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